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Iran’s Uncertain Trajectory: Risks, Opportunities, and Strategic Choices for Armenia and the South Caucasus

The Armenia Project - TAP will convene a timely discussion on how potential shifts in Iran — from prolonged instability to diplomatic stabilization — could reshape the strategic landscape of the South Caucasus.

Recent developments have renewed global debate about Iran’s future. While dramatic scenarios often dominate headlines, the range of plausible outcomes is far wider, carrying significant implications for neighboring states. For Armenia, these dynamics are especially consequential. Iran remains a vital trade and transit partner and one of Armenia’s few open borders. Economic disruption, migration pressures, and regional realignments could present both risks and opportunities.

The conversation will explore how divergent trajectories — including internal instability, policy continuity, or renewed international engagement — might affect border management, trade corridors, investment flows, and regional security. It will also examine the broader geopolitical dimension, including how external powers may respond to changing conditions and what this means for local agency.

Particular attention will be given to practical policy challenges facing small states in volatile environments: maintaining economic resilience, managing human spillover effects, and navigating shifts in regional power balances.

Featuring regional specialists, policy analysts, and an Iran expert, the webinar aims to provide a sober, forward-looking assessment rather than speculative predictions.

This discussion is designed for policymakers, analysts, business leaders, and observers seeking to better understand how developments in Iran could influence Armenia and the wider South Caucasus.

Join The Armenia Project on March 25 at 11:00 AM EST / 3:00 PM UK / 7:00 PM Armenia for a discussion analyzing the practical risks and trade opportunities facing small states in this volatile environment.

Webinar Speakers:

Nazenin Ansari
Managing Editor, Kayhan London
Marc Champion
Global Affairs Columnist, Bloomberg News
Robert Hamilton
President, Delphi Global Research Center
Sergei Melkonian    
Research Fellow, Applied Policy Research Institute of Armenia
Maneli Mirkhan
Founder, Dorna Iran

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December 10

Armenia’s Evolution: Is Media Self-Regulation the Answer?